The role of the forestry & wood sectors in mitigating climate change
A global issue
The French forestry & wood sector and its challenges
Forestry mitigation levers
An innovative assessment of the mitigation potential of the French sector
Chapter 1. Mitigation capacity of the different segments of the forestry & wood sector
Assessment of carbon storage in the forest ecosystem
Assessment of carbon storage in wood or wood-based products
Estimation of the greenhouse gas emissions avoided through substitution effects
Chapter 2. The current carbon balance across the French forestry & wood sector
An already significant carbon balance
Factors affecting the carbon balance: forest management, climate and risks
Chapter 3. Three forest management scenarios to the year 2050
'Extensification and reduced harvesting' scenario’
An intermediate 'Territorial Dynamics' scenario
‘Intensification and increase of harvests’ scenario
Plausibility of the management scenarios and reforestation plan
Three contrasting visions of the future
Chapter 4. Carbon balances of forest management strategies up to 2050
Determination of harvest levels
Standing timber stocks, harvests, and carbon storage in the forest ecosystem
The low level of carbon storage in wood products
The magnitude of emissions avoided through substitution, and the associated uncertainties
Carbon budgets are largely positive, but sensitive to the assumptions and parameters used.
Chapter 5. Economic barriers and levers for the implementation of forest management scenarios
Assumptions for the simulation of the 'Extensification' and 'Intensification' scenarios
Impediments to the growth of harvests as projected in the 'Intensification' scenario
The collective efforts required to increase production levels
Trends in the supply-use balance up until 2050
Impacts of intensified management on the economic performance of the sector
Chapter 6. The effects of worsening climate change
What climate trajectories should be adopted?
Combining the GO+ and Margot models to simulate RCP-8.5
The impacts of worsening climate change on forest dynamics and carbon balances
Chapter 7. Estimating the impacts of severe forest disturbances
Why include severe disturbances in simulations?
Three scenarios involving cascading risks
Modelling severe abiotic and biotic disturbances in MARGOT
Consequences to the sector of the damage caused by severe disturbances
Effects of the severe disturbances on the carbon balance of the forestry & wood sector
Originality of this approach
Offsets between components of the carbon balance differentiate the forest management strategies
Different uncertainties can be reduced to differing extents
Carbon balances are affected by worsening climate change and severe disturbances
Further scientific and methodological research
Beyond the carbon balance, other services provided by the forestry & wood sector should also be considered.
Annex. Determination of the areas to be reforested under the 'Intensification' scenario reforestation plan
Choice of areas to be included in a reforestation plan
Allocation of species to classes
References
List of authors and scientific experts involved in this publication
